Initial Metabolic Profiles Are Associated with 7-Day Survival among Infants Born at 22-25 Weeks of Gestation

Objective: To evaluate the association between early metabolic profiles combined with infant characteristics and survival past 7 days of age in infants born at 22-25 weeks of gestation.

Study design: This nested case-control consisted of 465 singleton live births in California from 2005 to 2011 at 22-25 weeks of gestation. All infants had newborn metabolic screening data available. Data included linked birth certificate and mother and infant hospital discharge records. Mortality was derived from linked death certificates and death discharge information. Each death within 7 days was matched to 4 surviving controls by gestational age and birth weight z score category, leaving 93 cases and 372 controls. The association between explanatory variables and 7-day survival was modeled via stepwise logistic regression. Infant characteristics, 42 metabolites, and 12 metabolite ratios were considered for model inclusion. Model performance was assessed via area under the curve.

Results: The final model included 1 characteristic and 11 metabolites. The model demonstrated a strong association between metabolic patterns and infant survival (area under the curve [AUC] 0.885, 95% CI 0.851-0.920). Furthermore, a model with just the selected metabolites performed better (AUC 0.879, 95% CI 0.841-0.916) than a model with multiple clinical characteristics (AUC 0.685, 95% CI 0.627-0.742).

Conclusions: Use of metabolomics significantly strengthens the association with 7-day survival in infants born extremely premature. Physicians may be able to use metabolic profiles at birth to refine mortality risks and inform postnatal counseling for infants born at <26 weeks of gestation.