The projected effect on insects, vertebrates, and plants of limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C

Science. 2018 May 18;360(6390):791-795. doi: 10.1126/science.aar3646.

Abstract

In the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the United Nations is pursuing efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C, whereas earlier aspirations focused on a 2°C limit. With current pledges, corresponding to ~3.2°C warming, climatically determined geographic range losses of >50% are projected in ~49% of insects, 44% of plants, and 26% of vertebrates. At 2°C, this falls to 18% of insects, 16% of plants, and 8% of vertebrates and at 1.5°C, to 6% of insects, 8% of plants, and 4% of vertebrates. When warming is limited to 1.5°C as compared with 2°C, numbers of species projected to lose >50% of their range are reduced by ~66% in insects and by ~50% in plants and vertebrates.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Extinction, Biological*
  • Global Warming*
  • Hot Temperature
  • Insecta*
  • Plants*
  • United Nations
  • Vertebrates*