Improved state-level influenza nowcasting in the United States leveraging Internet-based data and network approaches

Nat Commun. 2019 Jan 11;10(1):147. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-08082-0.

Abstract

In the presence of health threats, precision public health approaches aim to provide targeted, timely, and population-specific interventions. Accurate surveillance methodologies that can estimate infectious disease activity ahead of official healthcare-based reports, at relevant spatial resolutions, are important for achieving this goal. Here we introduce a methodological framework which dynamically combines two distinct influenza tracking techniques, using an ensemble machine learning approach, to achieve improved state-level influenza activity estimates in the United States. The two predictive techniques behind the ensemble utilize (1) a self-correcting statistical method combining influenza-related Google search frequencies, information from electronic health records, and historical flu trends within each state, and (2) a network-based approach leveraging spatio-temporal synchronicities observed in historical influenza activity across states. The ensemble considerably outperforms each component method in addition to previously proposed state-specific methods for influenza tracking, with higher correlations and lower prediction errors.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Data Analysis
  • Databases, Factual
  • Electronic Health Records
  • Epidemiological Monitoring*
  • Humans
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology*
  • Internet
  • Search Engine
  • United States / epidemiology