Mathematical modelling of the impact of treating latent tuberculosis infection in the elderly in a city with intermediate tuberculosis burden

Sci Rep. 2019 Mar 19;9(1):4869. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-41256-4.

Abstract

Hong Kong is a high-income city with intermediate tuberculosis (TB) burden primarily driven by endogenous reactivations. A high proportion of remote latently infected people, particularly elderly, hinders the effectiveness of current strategies focusing on passive TB detection. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of treating latent TB infection (LTBI) in the elderly in addition to current TB control strategies. The model was calibrated using the annual age-stratified TB notifications from 1965-2013 in Hong Kong. Our results showed that at present, approximately 75% of annual new notifications were from reactivations. Given the present treatment completion rate, even if only a low to moderate proportion (approximately 20% to 40%) of elderly people were screened and treated for LTBI, the overall TB incidence could be reduced by almost 50%, to reach the 2025 milestone of the global End TB Strategy. Nevertheless, due to a high risk of hepatotoxicity in elderly population, benefit-risk ratios were mostly below unity; thus, intervention programs should be carefully formulated, including prioritising LTBI treatment for high-risk elderly groups who are closely monitored for possible adverse side effects.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Antitubercular Agents / therapeutic use
  • Cities / epidemiology
  • Cost of Illness*
  • Hong Kong / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Latent Tuberculosis / epidemiology*
  • Latent Tuberculosis / microbiology
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Risk Assessment

Substances

  • Antitubercular Agents