The ALT-70 cellulitis model maintains predictive value at 24 and 48 hours after presentation

J Am Acad Dermatol. 2019 Dec;81(6):1252-1256. doi: 10.1016/j.jaad.2019.03.050. Epub 2019 Mar 23.

Abstract

Background: Cellulitis has many potential mimickers, and its misdiagnosis often leads to unnecessary hospitalizations and higher health care costs. The ALT-70 predictive model offers an objective tool to help differentiate between cellulitis and other clinically similar conditions at the time of initial emergency department (ED) presentation.

Objective: To evaluate the performance of the ALT-70 predictive model at 24 and 48 hours following ED presentation.

Methods: We performed a retrospective review of our prior cohort and expanded our data collection to include data at 24 and 48 hours after initial ED presentation. We compared classification measures for the ALT-70 at the time of initial ED presentation, 24 hours after presentation, and 48 hours after presentation.

Results: There was a statistically significant difference in median ALT-70 score between patients with true cellulitis and those with mimickers of cellulitis at all time points. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the ALT-70 score was similar across all 3 time points.

Limitations: Single-center design may reduce generalizability.

Conclusion: At 24 and 48 hours, the ALT-70 performed similarly to the way it performed at the time of initial ED presentation, allowing for its use in a wider array of clinical settings.

Keywords: ALT-70; SSTI; cellulitis; lower extremity cellulitis; misdiagnosis; skin and soft-tissue infection.

MeSH terms

  • Cellulitis / diagnosis*
  • Cellulitis / therapy
  • Cohort Studies
  • Cost Savings*
  • Decision Support Techniques*
  • Diagnosis, Differential
  • Diagnostic Errors / prevention & control*
  • Emergency Service, Hospital / statistics & numerical data*
  • Female
  • Hospital Costs
  • Hospitals, Urban
  • Humans
  • Length of Stay / economics
  • Male
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Skin Diseases, Infectious / diagnosis
  • Skin Diseases, Infectious / therapy
  • Time Factors