Transient elastography predicts survival after radiofrequency ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma developing on cirrhosis

Background and aim: The prognostic value of transient elastography (TE) in cirrhotic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated by percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is currently unknown.

Method(s): We included patients with histologically proven cirrhosis and with a first diagnosis of HCC inside Milan criteria treated by percutaneous RFA, and with TE available the year before treatment with 10 shots and interquartile range/median < 30%. Association between variables and clinical events was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test and using Cox univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results: One hundred fifty-nine patients were included, with a median age of 65 years; 77.4% were men. Causes of cirrhosis were alcohol consumption (48.1%), hepatitis C (43.7%), hepatitis B (12.7%), and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (32.3%). Median value of TE was 26 kPa (4-75 kPa). Overall survival at 1, 2, and 5 years was, respectively, 93%, 81%, and 44%; overall recurrence was 28%, 49%, and 80%. The TE value was not associated with tumor recurrence (0.13). In contrast, in univariate analysis, TE value, age, Child-Pugh B, and alkaline phosphatase were predictive factors in overall survival. In multivariate analysis, TE value (hazards ratio [HR] = 1.02, 95% confidence interval (IC): 1.01-1.04, 0.001), age (HR = 1.05, 95% IC: 1.03-1.08, P = 0.00006), and Child-Pugh B score (HR = 2.78, 95% IC: 1.27-6.08, P = 0.01) were independently associated with higher risk of death. A TE value ≥ 40 kPa was associated with shorter median overall survival (34 months) compared to a TE value < 40 kPa (59 months, P = 0.0008).

Conclusion(s): Transient elastography (TE) predicts overall survival but not tumor recurrence in cirrhotic patients with HCC treated by RFA.