Predictors of underlying pancreatic cancer in patients with acute pancreatitis: a Danish nationwide cohort study

Background: To identify demographic characteristics, comorbidities, medical procedures, and prescription drug use that may act as predictors of underlying pancreatic cancer in acute pancreatitis.

Methods: A cohort study of all patients admitted to Danish hospitals with incident acute pancreatitis during 1999-2015. The ability of age, sex, selected comorbidities, medical procedures, and prescription drug use to predict underlying pancreatic cancer in acute pancreatitis (i.e., pancreatic cancer diagnosed up to one year after acute pancreatitis) was examined. The absolute risk and odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of cancer was computed for each variable.

Results: 28,231 patients with incident acute pancreatitis, of which 283 (1.0%) had underlying pancreatic cancer, were included. Age >50 years was a predictor of pancreatic cancer with highest risk in patients aged 56-70 years. New-onset chronic pancreatitis (multivariable OR: 2.36 [95% CI: 1.35-4.14]) and new-onset diabetes (multivariable OR: 1.94 [95% CI: 1.30-2.92]) were also predictors of pancreatic cancer. Diagnoses of biliary or alcohol-related diseases were predictors of no underlying pancreatic cancer. Most variables examined had no or limited predictive ability.

Conclusion: Age, new-onset chronic pancreatitis, new-onset diabetes, and absence of biliary or alcohol-related diseases were predictors of underlying pancreatic cancer in acute pancreatitis patients.