Horizon scanning for South African biodiversity: A need for social engagement as well as science

Colleen L Seymour; Lindsey Gillson; Matthew F Child; Krystal A Tolley; Jock C Curie; Jessica M da Silva; Graham J Alexander; Pippin Anderson; Colleen T Downs; Benis N Egoh; David A Ehlers Smith; Yvette C Ehlers Smith; Karen J Esler; Patrick J O'Farrell; Andrew L Skowno; Essa Suleman; Ruan Veldtman

doi:10.1007/s13280-019-01252-4

Horizon scanning for South African biodiversity: A need for social engagement as well as science

Ambio. 2020 Jun;49(6):1211-1221. doi: 10.1007/s13280-019-01252-4. Epub 2019 Sep 28.

Authors

Colleen L Seymour^{1

2}, Lindsey Gillson³, Matthew F Child^{4

5}, Krystal A Tolley^{4

6}, Jock C Curie^{4

7}, Jessica M da Silva^{4

8}, Graham J Alexander⁹, Pippin Anderson¹⁰, Colleen T Downs¹¹, Benis N Egoh¹², David A Ehlers Smith¹¹, Yvette C Ehlers Smith¹¹, Karen J Esler¹³, Patrick J O'Farrell^{14

15}, Andrew L Skowno^{4

3}, Essa Suleman^{16

17}, Ruan Veldtman^{4

18}

Affiliations

¹ South African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Private Bag X7, Claremont, 7735, South Africa. [email protected].
² FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa. [email protected].
³ Plant Conservation Unit, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, private Bag X3, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa.
⁴ South African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Private Bag X7, Claremont, 7735, South Africa.
⁵ Mammal Research Institute, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20 Hatfield, Pretoria, 0028, South Africa.
⁶ Department of Zoology, Centre for Ecological Genomics and Wildlife Conservation, University of Johannesburg, P.O. Box 524, Auckland Park, 2000, South Africa.
⁷ Institute for Coastal and Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, PO Box 77000, Port Elizabeth, 6031, South Africa.
⁸ Department of Botany & Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag x1, Matieland, 7602, South Africa.
⁹ School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2050, South Africa.
¹⁰ Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa.
¹¹ Centre for Functional Biodiversity, School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Private Bag X01, Scottsville, Pietermaritzburg, 3209, South Africa.
¹² Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA.
¹³ Centre for Invasion Biology and Department of Conservation Ecology & Entomology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag x1, Matieland, 7602, South Africa.
¹⁴ Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, PO Box 320, Stellenbosch, 7599, South Africa.
¹⁵ FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa.
¹⁶ NextGen Health Cluster, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, P.O. Box 395, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa.
¹⁷ National Zoological Garden, South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI), 232 Boom Street, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa.
¹⁸ Department of Conservation Ecology & Entomology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag x1, Matieland, 7602, South Africa.

Abstract

A horizon scan was conducted to identify emerging and intensifying issues for biodiversity conservation in South Africa over the next 5-10 years. South African biodiversity experts submitted 63 issues of which ten were identified as priorities using the Delphi method. These priority issues were then plotted along axes of social agreement and scientific certainty, to ascertain whether issues might be "simple" (amenable to solutions from science alone), "complicated" (socially agreed upon but technically complicated), "complex" (scientifically challenging and significant levels of social disagreement) or "chaotic" (high social disagreement and highly scientifically challenging). Only three of the issues were likely to be resolved by improved science alone, while the remainder require engagement with social, economic and political factors. Fortunately, none of the issues were considered chaotic. Nevertheless, strategic communication, education and engagement with the populace and policy makers were considered vital for addressing emerging issues.

Keywords: Biodiversity futures; Consensus and scientific knowledge; Delphi approach; Future scenarios; Step changes; Threats and opportunities.

MeSH terms

Biodiversity*
Conservation of Natural Resources*
Politics
South Africa