Ending the Epidemic in America Will Not Happen if the Status Quo Continues: Modeled Projections for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Incidence in 6 US Cities

Clin Infect Dis. 2019 Nov 27;69(12):2195-2198. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciz1015.

Abstract

We estimated 10-year (2020-2030) trajectories for human immunodeficiency virus incidence in 6 US cities. Estimated incidence will only decrease in 2 of 6 cities, with the overall population-weighted incidence decreasing 3.1% (95% credible interval [CrI], -1.0% to 8.5%) by 2025, and 4.3% (95% CrI, -2.6% to 12.7%) by 2030 across cities. Targeted, context-specific combination implementation strategies will be necessary to meet the newly established national targets.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS; dynamic transmission model; epidemiological projection; “Ending the HIV epidemic” plan.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / epidemiology
  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / prevention & control
  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / virology
  • Cities
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology*
  • HIV Infections / prevention & control
  • HIV Infections / virology*
  • HIV*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Population Surveillance
  • United States / epidemiology