Objective: To explore the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of cases with newly diagnosed echinococcosis in Sichuan Province from 2007 to 2017, so as to provide reference for the formulation of echinococcosis prevention and control strategies and for the identification of key areas.
Methods: The spatial distribution maps of detection of cases with newly diagnosed echinococcosis were plotted in Sichuan Province from 2007 to 2017, and the spatial distribution characteristics and epidemic trends were analyzed.
Results: From 2007 to 2017, the detection rate of cases with newly diagnosed echinococcosis appeared a decline in Sichuan Province year by year, and the areas with a high detection rate of cases with newly diagnosed echinococcosis were mainly located in western, northwestern and northern parts of Sichuan Province, while the areas with a low detection rate were predominantly found in the southern and eastern parts of the province. The global Moran's I values were 0.19, 0.22, 0.17, 0.44, 0.48, 0.31 and 0.16 for the detection rate of cases with newly diagnosed echinococcosis in Sichuan Province from 2010 to 2016 (all Z scores > 1.96, all P values < 0.05), suggesting spatial aggregation distribution during this period. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the"high-high"areas and"low-low"areas for the detection rate of cases with newly diagnosed echinococcosis all showed an aggregation tendency.
Conclusions: The detection rate of cases with newly diagnosed echinococcosis decreases in Sichuan Province from 2007 to 2017 year by year, and shows a spatial aggregation. The echinococcosis control activities should be intensified in Shiqu, Seda, Dege, Ganzi and Baiyu counties.
[摘要] 目的 探索2007–2017年四川省棘球蚴病新发病例时空分布特征, 为棘球蚴病防控策略制定和重点区域识别 提供参考依据。方法 绘制2007–2017年四川省棘球蚴病新发病例检出率空间分布图, 分析其空间分布特征及流行趋 势。结果 2007–2017年四川省棘球蚴病新发病例检出率逐年下降, 新发病例检出率较高地区主要分布在西部、西北部 和北部, 检出率较低地区主要分布在南部和东部地区。2010–2016年四川省棘球蚴病新发病例检出率全局 Moran’s I 值 分别为0.19、0.22、0.17、0.44、0.48、0.31和0.16, Z 值均> 1.96, P 值均< 0.05, 提示此期间四川省棘球蚴病新发病例呈聚集 分布。局部 Moran’s I 分析显示, 四川省棘球蚴病新发病例检出率“高-高”聚集区域和“低-低”聚集区域均呈一定聚集趋 势。结论 2007–2017年四川省棘球蚴病新发病例检出率逐年下降, 且呈一定的空间聚集性分布, 应继续加强石渠、色 达、德格、甘孜县和白玉县等重点地区的棘球蚴病防控工作。.
Keywords: Echinococcosis; Newly diagnosed patient; Sichuan Province; Spatial autocorrelation analysis.