Is the type 2 diabetes epidemic plateauing in France? A nationwide population-based study

Aim: Nationwide data on the evolution of diabetes incidence and prevalence are scarce in France. For this reason, our objectives were to determine type 2 diabetes prevalence and incidence rates between 2010 and 2017, stratified by gender, age and region, and to assess annual time trends over the study period in adults aged≥45 years.

Methods: Diabetes cases in the National Health Data System (SNDS), which covers the entire French population (66 million people), were identified through a validated algorithm. Gender- and age-specific prevalence and incidence rates were estimated. Negative binomial models, adjusted for gender, age and region, were used to assess annual time trends for prevalence and incidence throughout the study period.

Results: During 2017, 3,144,225 diabetes cases aged≥45 years were identified. Over the study period, prevalence increased slightly (men from 11.5% to 12.1%, women from 7.9% to 8.4%) whereas incidence decreased (men from 11 to 9.7, women from 7.2 to 6.2 per 1000 person-years). In only four groups did prevalence rates decrease: men aged 45-65 years; women aged 45-60 years; women in Reunion; and women in Martinique. An increasing annual time trend was observed for prevalence (men: +0.9% [95% CI: +0.7%, +1%]; women: +0.4% [95% CI: +0.2%, +0.6%]) with a decreasing annual time trend for incidence in both genders (men: -2.6% [95% CI: -3.1%, -2.0%]; women: -3.9% [95% CI: -4.5%, -3.4%]).

Conclusion: Further efforts towards diabetes prevention are required to ensure that incidence rates in France continue to diminish, as the disorder continues to represent an important public-health burden.