The Challenges of Parameterizing Direct Effects in Individual-Level Simulation Models

Med Decis Making. 2020 Jan;40(1):106-111. doi: 10.1177/0272989X19894940.

Abstract

Individual-level simulation models are used to assess the effects of health interventions in complex settings. However, estimating valid causal effects using these models requires correct parametrization of the relationships between time-varying treatments, outcomes, and other variables in the causal structure. To parameterize these relationships, individual-level simulation models typically need estimates of the direct effects of treatment. However, direct effects of treatment are often not well- defined and therefore cannot be validly estimated from any data. In this paper, we explain the causal meaning of the parameters of individual-level simulation models as direct effects, describe why direct effects may be difficult to define unambiguously in some settings, and conclude with some suggestions for the design of individual-level simulation models in those settings.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • Computer Simulation / standards*
  • Computer Simulation / statistics & numerical data
  • Forecasting / methods*
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Patient Simulation*