Forecasting head lice (Pediculidae: Pediculus humanus capitis) infestation incidence hotspots based on spatial correlation analysis in Northwest Iran

Background and aim: Pediculus humanus capitis has been prevalent throughout the world, especially in developing countries among elementary students and societies with a weak socio-economic status. This study aimed to forecast head lice (Pediculidae: P. capitis) infestation incidence hotspots based on spatial correlation analysis in Ardabil Province, Northwest Iran.

Materials and methods: In this retrospective analytical study, all cases of head lice infestations who were confirmed by Centers for Disease Control office have been studied from 2016 to 2018. Head lice infestation incidence hotspots in the province should be detected based on general G statistics in ArcMap GIS10.4.1. Furthermore, MaxEnt.3.3.3 model was used for modeling the high-risk areas.

Results: The prevalence rate of pediculosis was 14.90/100,000 populations. The general G statistics revealed that the head lice infestation in this study area has a high cluster pattern. The analysis showed that the Parsabad and Germi counties were identified as a head lice infestation incidence hotspots. Statistical and spatial analyses of head lice infestation incidence showed a significant positive correlation with head lice infestation incidence hotspots and the altitudes (15-500 m), annual temperature range (14-16.5°C), and slope and average diurnal temperature (12-18°C).

Conclusion: The results of this study showed that the most ecologically suitable areas of head lice occurrence were identified in two hotspots (Parsabad and Germi) in the Northern areas of Ardabil Province (Parsabad and Germi counties); in the borderline of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan.