Model-based reconstruction of the Ulysse-Virginia oil spill, October-November 2018

In response to the oil spill caused by the collision between the Ro-Ro ship Ulysse and CSL Virginia on 7^th October 2018, the Lagrangian oil spill model MEDSLIK-II was utilized to predict spill transport and fate. Oil drift was forced by the high-resolution sea circulation provided by CMEMS and the ECMWF wind. Successive model runs were restarted 5 times with the distinct overflight- and satellite-derived observations provided by REMPEC and the Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission. The results were verified based on the ability to predict the first oil-beaching event that happened near Saint-Tropez (France) in the early afternoon of 16^th October. Despite the general consistency among the runs, only the last initialization was able to forecast the oil beaching. Stochastic MEDSLIK-II simulations forced by the historical meteo-oceanographic datasets 2014-2018 revealed that the coastlines between Cap Lardier and the Gulf of Saint-Tropez were among the most impacted areas.