Objective: Build a prognostic model using clinical, laboratory, and instrumental data to predict mortality in patients with midrange left ventricular ejection fraction (mrLVEF) within two years after hospitalization for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF).
Materials and methods: The study included 121 patients hospitalized for ADHF with mrLVEF ranging from 40% to 49.9% (91 males and 30 females, mean age 64.6±14.8 years). The independent sample used to validate the statistical model included 71 patients with ADHF and mrLVEF with a mean age of 65.59±12.12 years. Sex distribution of the independent sample was 51 males (70.8% of the independent sample), 20 females (27.8% of the total independent sample). In-hospital mortality of patients included in the study was 4.2%, and long-term mortality was 36.8%. We developed a tool to assess the risk of two-year mortality using classification trees.
Results: The root node is the red blood cell distribution width-coefficient of variation (RDW-CV); its diagnostic value in this model was 13.3%. The second-level nodes are glomerular filtration rate (GFR), with a cutoff level of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). The third-level nodes are sex, the anterior-posterior dimension of the left atrium, with the cutoff level >47 mm, and low red blood cell count <4.22x1012/L. The estimated sensitivity of the model is 71.4%; estimated specificity is 85.7%.
Conclusion: This model can be used to assess long-term mortality risk and identify groups of patients with mrLVEF who require closer monitoring.