Incidence of hypertension among Asian Indians: 10 year follow up of the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES-153)

Aims: There are very few studies on incidence of hypertension from developing countries. We report on the incidence of hypertension and its risk factors in Chennai city in southern India.

Methods: Participants were 1691 individuals from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES) cohorts who did not have hypertension (normotensive n = 878, prehypertension n = 813) at baseline and who were followed for a median of 9.0 years. During the follow-up, 41 with missing blood pressure values were excluded, leaving 1650 individuals for the present analysis. Incidence rates of hypertension and predictors of progression to prehypertension and/or hypertension were estimated using Cox proportional hazards model.

Results: During the follow-up period, 426 out of 1650 individuals developed hypertension, giving an overall incidence of hypertension of 28.7(95%CI 26.1-31.5) per 1000 person-years. Individuals with dysglycemia at baseline had higher incident rates of hypertension. Collectively, four modifiable risk factors [pre-hypertension, dysglycemia, central obesity and physical inactivity] accounted for 87.2% of the population attributable risk of incident hypertension.

Conclusions: Higher body weight, BMI, age and dysglycemia were associated with an increased risk of incident hypertension. Prehypertension, dysglycemia, central obesity and physical inactivity accounted for 87% of incident hypertension.