A nomogram prediction for mandibular molar survival in Chinese patients with periodontitis: A 10-year retrospective cohort study

Aims: To develop a nomogram prediction model of mandibular molar survival by comprehensively analysing clinical and radiographic risk factors of mandibular molar loss.

Materials and methods: Four hundred and seventy-eight mandibular molars of 139 subjects who underwent non-surgical periodontal treatment were examined retrospectively within a mean follow-up period of 11.1 years. The association of risk factors including clinical and radiographic parameters with mandibular molar loss was assessed using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. A nomogram prediction model was developed, and the validation and discriminatory ability of it were analysed.

Results: Hundred and four molars were lost in this study. Probing depth (PD), attachment loss (AL), furcation involvement (FI), bleeding on probing (BOP), tooth mobility and radiographic bone loss were significantly associated with tooth loss (p < .01). A gradient effect of degree of FI on mandibular molar loss existed increasing from degree Ⅱ (HR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.48, 3.79) to Ⅲ (HR = 5.61, 95% CI: 3.01, 10.45) versus none & degree Ⅰ. The area under the curve (AUC) of the model was 0.891. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis demonstrated good performance and high net benefit of nomogram, respectively.

Conclusions: A specific nomogram could be adopted to predict the mandibular molar survival and formulate tailored treatment plans in Chinese.