Prostate cancer-specific mortality burden by risk group among men with localized disease: Implications for research and clinical trial priorities

Objective: To estimate contemporary population-based patterns of the relative burden of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) attributable to each N0M0 prostate cancer risk-group, that may guide prioritization in research, trial design, and clinical practice.

Methods: We categorized 2004-2015 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database patients by risk group (low, favorable intermediate, unfavorable intermediate, high, and very highrisk). Using the Fine-Gray method, we calculated the relative burden of 10-year PCSM attributable to each risk group.

Results: Among N = 337 162 men (6.8-year median follow-up; median age 65 years), the relative proportion of low-, favorable intermediate-, unfavorable intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk diagnoses were 29.9% (N = 100 969), 31.1% (N = 104 696), 17.9% (N = 60 360), 18.1% (N = 61 023), and 3.0% (N = 10 114). Within 10 years of diagnosis, among patients who died of prostate cancer (N = 15 064), 5.0% (N = 746) had low-risk, 13.7% (N = 2060) had favorable intermediate-risk, 16.1% (N = 2429) had unfavorable intermediate-risk, 47.8% (N = 7196) had high-risk, and 17.5% (N = 2633) had very high-risk disease at diagnosis. Patients aged 65 and older accounted for 51.9% of all diagnoses and 72.3% of 10-year PCSM. Although black patients accounted for 15.0% of low-risk diagnoses, they accounted for 20.6% of 10-year PCSM. White patients accounted for 80.3% of low-risk diagnoses and 75.7% of 10-year PCSM.

Conclusion: Although high-risk and very high-risk disease account for one-fifth of diagnoses, they account for two-thirds of 10-year PCSM. Older patients and black patients with low-risk disease accounted for a disproportionately large proportion of deaths. These findings support targeting research toward high-risk disease and ensuring adequate representation of older and black men in clinical trials.