Patterns of Recurrence and Modes of Progression After Metastasis-Directed Therapy in Oligometastatic Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer

Purpose: Metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) is increasingly used in castration-sensitive oligometastatic prostate cancer because it prolongs progression-free survival (PFS) and androgen deprivation free survival. Here we describe patterns of recurrence and identify modes of progression after MDT using SABR.

Methods and materials: Two hundred fifty-eight patients with castration-sensitive oligometastatic prostate cancer (≤5 lesions at staging) were retrospectively identified from a multi-institutional database. Descriptive patterns of recurrence and modes of progression were reported. Other outcomes including median time to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) recurrence, time to next intervention, distant metastasis-free survival, overall survival, and biochemical PFS (bPFS) were reported. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and multivariable analysis was performed.

Results: Median follow-up was 25.2 months, and 50.4% of patients received concurrent androgen deprivation. Median time to PSA recurrence was 15.7 months, time to next intervention was 28.6 months, distant metastasis-free survival was 19.1 months, and bPFS was 16.1 months. Two-year overall survival was 96.8%. On multivariable analysis, factors associated with bPFS included age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; P = .04), N1 disease at diagnosis (HR, 2.00; P = .02), M1 disease at diagnosis (HR, 0.44; P = .01), initial PSA at diagnosis (HR, 1.002; P = <.001), use of androgen deprivation therapy (HR, 0.41; P < .001), pre-SABR PSA (HR, 1.02; P = .01), and use of enhanced imaging for staging (HR, 2.81; P = .001). Patterns of progression favored an osseous component at recurrence; in patients initially treated to a bone lesion alone, the vast majority (86.5%) experienced a recurrence that included an osseous site. Patients treated initially to a nodal site alone tended to recur in a node only (64.5%); however, there was also a significant minority with an osseous component of recurrence at progression (32.3%). Modes of progressors were class I (patients with long term control [no recurrence ≥18 months after therapy]) occurring in 40.9%, class II (oligoprogressors [≤3 lesions at recurrence]) occurring in 36% (including 7.9% of patients with PSA recurrence but no metastatic disease), and class III (polyprogressors [>3 lesions]) occurring in 23.1% of patients.

Conclusions: After MDT, the majority of patients have long-term control or oligoprogression (class I or II). Recurrence tended to occur in osseous sites. These findings, if validated, have implications for future integration of MDT and clinical trial design.