The aim of this study was to determine trajectories of depression in older adults and to identify predictors of membership in the different trajectory groups. A total of 3983 individuals aged 65 or older were included. Latent class growth models were used to identify trajectory groups. Of 3983 individuals, 2269 (57%) were females, with a mean baseline age of 72.4 years (SD = 6 years). Four depression trajectories were identified across 8 years of follow-up: "low-flat" (n = 3636; 86.6%), "low-to-middle" (n = 214; 9.2%), "low-to-high" (n = 31; 1.3%), and "high-stable" (n = 102; 2.9%). Compared to the low-flat depression group, high-stable depression group members were more likely to be female, have three or more chronic diseases, and were more likely not to own a home. Our findings will assist health policy decision-makers in planning intervention programs targeting those most likely to experience persistent depression in order to improve psychological well-being in the elderly.
Keywords: depression; latent class growth model; older adults; predictors; trajectories.