A methodology for analyzing and forecasting sociopolitical destabilization

Ilya Ilyin; Leonid Issaev; Sergey Malkov

doi:10.1016/j.biosystems.2020.104229

A methodology for analyzing and forecasting sociopolitical destabilization

Biosystems. 2020 Dec:198:104229. doi: 10.1016/j.biosystems.2020.104229. Epub 2020 Aug 26.

Authors

Ilya Ilyin¹, Leonid Issaev², Sergey Malkov³

Affiliations

¹ Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia.
² National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia; Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia. Electronic address: [email protected].
³ Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia; Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.

PMID: 32860859
DOI: 10.1016/j.biosystems.2020.104229

Abstract

The article presents a methodology for the analysis of political crises meant to assess the current situation of sociopolitical (in)stability of the developing and developed societies in question, provide an inertial forecast of the developing situation in a given period, analyse threats to stability threats, and examine possible measures to counteract such threats and their likely influence on the situation. The methodology is based on modeling sociopolitical stability in the country in question with the help of an elaborate logical-mathematical model.

Keywords: Destabilization; Forecasting; Logical-mathematical modeling; Nonlinear dynamics; Political instability; Social systems.

MeSH terms

Algorithms
Data Collection / methods*
Delphi Technique
Forecasting / methods*
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Political Systems / psychology
Political Systems / statistics & numerical data*
Reproducibility of Results
Social Problems / prevention & control
Social Problems / psychology
Social Problems / statistics & numerical data*
Sociological Factors*
Surveys and Questionnaires