Diet Quality and Long-Term Absolute Risks for Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality

Background: Long-term absolute risks for cardiovascular disease and mortality and cardiovascular disease-free survival according to diet quality at different adult ages are unclear.

Methods: Data from 6 prospective cohorts collected in 1985-2016 were analyzed (n = 29,497). Baseline diet quality was assessed by alternate Healthy Eating Index 2010 (aHEI-2010), alternate Mediterranean (aMED) diet score, and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) score. Absolute risks were estimated using modified Kaplan-Meier analysis and cardiovascular disease-free survival using Irwin's restricted mean. Analyses were stratified by sex and baseline age: young (20-39 years), middle-aged (40-59), and older (60-79).

Results: Comparing participants in the lowest quintile with those in the highest quintile of aHEI-2010 score, the 40-year risks for incident cardiovascular disease were 14.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.0-18.6) compared to 5.9% (3.0-8.9) in young men, 8.8% (4.3-13.3) compared to 3.0% (1.6-4.4) in young women, 39.6% (36.1-43.2) compared to 30.8% (26.2-35.3) in middle-aged men, and 32.9% (28.0-37.8) compared to 19.5% (16.6-22.4) in middle-aged women. For older adults, the 30-year risks for incident cardiovascular disease were 54.7% (49.3-60.2) compared to 49.7% (44.5-55.0) in men and 48.3% (44.0-52.5) compared to 42.4% (38.2-46.7) in women. Similar inverse associations were identified for all-cause mortality. Compared with participants in the lowest quintile of aHEI-2010 score, those in the highest quintile had ~0.5-2.2 years of longer cardiovascular disease-free survival. Results based on DASH score, but not aMED score, were similar to results based on aHEI-2010 score.

Conclusions: Consuming a higher quality diet was associated with lower long-term absolute risks for cardiovascular disease and mortality and longer cardiovascular disease-free survival, regardless of sex or age at dietary assessment.