Uncovering drivers of dose-dependence and individual variation in malaria infection outcomes

PLoS Comput Biol. 2020 Oct 8;16(10):e1008211. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008211. eCollection 2020 Oct.

Abstract

To understand why some hosts get sicker than others from the same type of infection, it is essential to explain how key processes, such as host responses to infection and parasite growth, are influenced by various biotic and abiotic factors. In many disease systems, the initial infection dose impacts host morbidity and mortality. To explore drivers of dose-dependence and individual variation in infection outcomes, we devised a mathematical model of malaria infection that allowed host and parasite traits to be linear functions (reaction norms) of the initial dose. We fitted the model, using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, to experimental time-series data of acute Plasmodium chabaudi infection across doses spanning seven orders of magnitude. We found evidence for both dose-dependent facilitation and debilitation of host responses. Most importantly, increasing dose reduced the strength of activation of indiscriminate host clearance of red blood cells while increasing the half-life of that response, leading to the maximal response at an intermediate dose. We also explored the causes of diverse infection outcomes across replicate mice receiving the same dose. Besides random noise in the injected dose, we found variation in peak parasite load was due to unobserved individual variation in host responses to clear infected cells. Individual variation in anaemia was likely driven by random variation in parasite burst size, which is linked to the rate of host cells lost to malaria infection. General host vigour in the absence of infection was also correlated with host health during malaria infection. Our work demonstrates that the reaction norm approach provides a useful quantitative framework for examining the impact of a continuous external factor on within-host infection processes.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Anemia / complications
  • Animals
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Computational Biology
  • Female
  • Host-Parasite Interactions*
  • Malaria* / complications
  • Malaria* / immunology
  • Malaria* / parasitology
  • Malaria* / physiopathology
  • Mice
  • Mice, Inbred C57BL
  • Parasite Load
  • Plasmodium chabaudi / pathogenicity
  • Plasmodium chabaudi / physiology

Associated data

  • Dryad/10.5061/dryad.stqjq2c1k

Grants and funding

NM was supported by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (Discovery Grant). MAG was supported by University of Toronto Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Postdoctoral Fellowship (MAG). TK was supported by Mitacs (Globalink Research Exchange Award) and IDEAS (RCN Exchange Award). Computational resources for this project were provided by Compute Canada. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.