A Model to Assess the Outcomes Associated With Dementia With Lewy Bodies

Background: Research investigating outcomes associated with dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) disease progression is scarce. Developing models of DLB disease progression will provide information on the burden of disease and facilitate the evaluation of treatments for DLB from a clinical and cost perspective.

Methods: Longitudinal, cognitive evaluation data were utilized in order to identify distinct health states for DLB and to estimate transition probabilities across the DLB disease continuum. These probabilities were applied to a health state transition model to evaluate disease progression and associated outcomes for a closed cohort over a fixed time horizon. The effect of a reduction in the risk of disease progression on outcomes was assessed.

Results: Estimated transition probabilities indicate that a patient >60 years of age with mild DLB has a 54%, 30%, 4%, and 12% chance of remaining mild, progressing to severe DLB, being institutionalized, and dying after 1 year, respectively. Reducing the annual risk of transitioning from mild to severe DLB by 40% decreased time institutionalized and increased time to death.

Conclusions: This study used real-world longitudinal data to create a clinically relevant DLB disease progression model. Reducing the rate of disease progression resulted in meaningful benefits with potentially significant public health implications.