[Impact of achievement of "90-90-90" goals on reduction in new HIV infections in Shandong province based on risk estimation equation]

Objective: To explore the impact of achievement of the "90-90-90" goals on reductions in HIV incidence in Shandong province. Methods: An algebraic method was developed to link new HIV infections and the "90-90-90" goals in Shandong province. The risk estimation equation was used to analyze the effect of achievement of the "90-90-90" goals on reductions of HIV incidence, and explore the impact of application of antiviral therapy based prevention and control strategy on reduction of new HIV infections. Results: If "90-90-90" goals were achieved in 2020 in Shandong compared with annual new HIV infections in 2010, the percentage of reduction would be 17.27%, 35.99% and 67.55% respectively when transmission rate decreased by 26.00%, 53.00% and 96.00% respectively. Compared with 2017, when the transmission rate decreased by 53.00%, the annual new HIV infections would has a decrease of 10.10% if the rates of diagnosis and ART reached 90.00%; the annual new HIV infections would has a decrease of 20.80% if the rates of diagnosis and viral suppression reached 90.00%; the annual new HIV infections would has a decrease of 12.29% if the rates of ART and viral suppression reached 90.00%. Conclusions: HIV incidence would decrease with the achievement of "90-90-90" goals in Shandong. Compared with the improvement of ART, the improvement in diagnosis of HIV infection and viral suppression would result in more rapid decrease of new HIV infections. Besides expanding ART coverage, more attention should be paid to the strengthening of the diagnosis of HIV infection and viral suppression in Shandong.