A Deep Learning Prognosis Model Help Alert for COVID-19 Patients at High-Risk of Death: A Multi-Center Study

IEEE J Biomed Health Inform. 2020 Dec;24(12):3576-3584. doi: 10.1109/JBHI.2020.3034296. Epub 2020 Dec 4.

Abstract

Since its outbreak in December 2019, the persistent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) became a global health emergency. It is imperative to develop a prognostic tool to identify high-risk patients and assist in the formulation of treatment plans. We retrospectively collected 366 severe or critical COVID-19 patients from four centers, including 70 patients who died within 14 days (labeled as high-risk patients) since their initial CT scan and 296 who survived more than 14 days or were cured (labeled as low-risk patients). We developed a 3D densely connected convolutional neural network (termed De-COVID19-Net) to predict the probability of COVID-19 patients belonging to the high-risk or low-risk group, combining CT and clinical information. The area under the curve (AUC) and other evaluation techniques were used to assess our model. The De-COVID19-Net yielded an AUC of 0.952 (95% confidence interval, 0.928-0.977) on the training set and 0.943 (0.904-0.981) on the test set. The stratified analyses indicated that our model's performance is independent of age, sex, and with/without chronic diseases. The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that our model could significantly categorize patients into high-risk and low-risk groups (p < 0.001). In conclusion, De-COVID19-Net can non-invasively predict whether a patient will die shortly based on the patient's initial CT scan with an impressive performance, which indicated that it could be used as a potential prognosis tool to alert high-risk patients and intervene in advance.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / diagnosis
  • COVID-19 / physiopathology*
  • COVID-19 / virology
  • Deep Learning*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Risk Factors
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFC1309100, 2017YFA0205200), Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Key Project of Science and Technology of Hubei Province (2020FCA015), National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 82022036, 91959130, 81971776, 81771924, 6202790004, 81930053, 81871332, Natural Science Foundation of Beijing Municipality (L182061), Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB 38040200), the Project of High-Level Talents Team Introduction in Zhuhai City (Zhuhai HLHPTP201703), and Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS (2017175).