The interplay of movement and spatiotemporal variation in transmission degrades pandemic control

Nicholas Kortessis; Margaret W Simon; Michael Barfield; Gregory E Glass; Burton H Singer; Robert D Holt

doi:10.1073/pnas.2018286117

The interplay of movement and spatiotemporal variation in transmission degrades pandemic control

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Dec 1;117(48):30104-30106. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2018286117. Epub 2020 Nov 10.

Authors

Nicholas Kortessis¹, Margaret W Simon¹, Michael Barfield¹, Gregory E Glass^{2

3}, Burton H Singer³, Robert D Holt⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.
² Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.
³ Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610.
⁴ Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611; [email protected].

Abstract

Successful public health regimes for COVID-19 push below unity long-term regional R_t -the average number of secondary cases caused by an infectious individual. We use a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for two coupled populations to make the conceptual point that asynchronous, variable local control, together with movement between populations, elevates long-term regional R_t , and cumulative cases, and may even prevent disease eradication that is otherwise possible. For effective pandemic mitigation strategies, it is critical that models encompass both spatiotemporal heterogeneity in transmission and movement.

Keywords: COVID-19; inflationary effect; spatiotemporal variation.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

COVID-19 / prevention & control*
COVID-19 / transmission*
Humans
Movement*
Pandemics / prevention & control*
Spatio-Temporal Analysis*
Time Factors