Natural history of pathologically confirmed pulmonary subsolid nodules with deep learning-assisted nodule segmentation

Objective: To explore the natural history of pulmonary subsolid nodules (SSNs) with different pathological types by deep learning-assisted nodule segmentation.

Methods: Between June 2012 and June 2019, 95 resected SSNs with preoperative long-term follow-up were enrolled in this retrospective study. SSN detection and segmentation were performed on preoperative follow-up CTs using the deep learning-based Dr. Wise system. SSNs were categorized into invasive adenocarcinoma (IAC, n = 47) and non-IAC (n = 48) groups; according to the interval change during the preoperative follow-up, SSNs were divided into growth (n = 68), nongrowth (n = 22), and new emergence (n = 5) groups. We analyzed the cumulative percentages and pattern of SSN growth and identified significant factors for IAC diagnosis and SSN growth.

Results: The mean preoperative follow-up was 42.1 ± 17.0 months. More SSNs showed growth or new emergence in the IAC than in the non-IAC group (89.4% vs. 64.6%, p = 0.009). Volume doubling time was non-significantly shorter for IACs than for non-IACs (1436.0 ± 1188.2 vs. 2087.5 ± 1799.7 days, p = 0.077). Median mass doubling time was significantly shorter for IACs than for non-IACs (821.7 vs. 1944.1 days, p = 0.001). Lobulated sign (p = 0.002) and SSN mass (p = 0.004) were significant factors for differentiating IACs. IACs showed significantly higher cumulative growth percentages than non-IACs in the first 70 months of follow-up. The growth pattern of SSNs may conform to the exponential model. The initial volume (p = 0.042) was a predictor for SSN growth.

Conclusions: IACs appearing as SSNs showed an indolent course. The mean growth rate was larger for IACs than for non-IACs. SSNs with larger initial volume are more likely to grow.

Key points: • Invasive adenocarcinomas (IACs) appearing as subsolid nodules (SSNs), with a mean volume doubling time (VDT) of 1436.0 ± 1188.2 days and median mass doubling time (MDT) of 821.7 days, showed an indolent course. • The VDT was shorter for IACs than for non-IACs (1436.0 ± 1188.2 vs. 2087.5 ± 1799.7 days), but the difference was not significant (p = 0.077). The median MDT was significantly shorter for IACs than for non-IACs (821.7 vs. 1944.1 days, p = 0.001). • SSNs with lobulated sign and larger mass (> 390.5 mg) may very likely be IACs. SSNs with larger initial volume are more likely to grow.