Determination of Cerebrovascular Accident Predictors in Patients with New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with an increased risk of short and long-term stroke. Our aim is to identify the independent predictors of cerebrovascular accident (CVA) development in the patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and developed POAF which lasted within 48 h.

Method: 301 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG surgery in our institution between January 2015 and September 2019 and developed POAF which lasted within 48 h, were retrospectively analyzed. Oral anticoagulant (OAC) treatment was not started in any of these patients, and those who received OAC during follow-ups, were excluded from the study. The predictors of CVA development after mean 32.1± 17.9 months follow-up, were determined by using the Cox proportional hazards model.

Results: 20 (6.6%) patients developed CVA, in which 6 (2.0%) of them were in-hospital events. As a result of the multivariate analysis, being over 70 year-old, history of CVA, hypertension (HT), and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 45% were determined as the independent predictors of CVA development over time. Having at least two of these factors could predict CVA development with sensitivity of 95.0% and specificity of 82.2%. This predictive value was better than the value obtained with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score.

Conclusion: The risk factors which we have obtained, might be used to evaluate the risk of CVA development over time in the patients who underwent isolated CABG surgery and developed POAF which lasted within 48 h.