Choosing Optimal Microcarcinoma Patients for Active Surveillance Study (Compass): Effectiveness Evaluation of a Preoperative Clinical Framework

Objective: Active surveillance (AS) is a management alternative for patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). To decide the best candidates for AS, clinicians can use a framework to classify PTMC patients as ideal, appropriate, or inappropriate. This study aimed to explore the correlation between the framework categories and surgical pathology.

Methods: This multicenter retrospective study was conducted between 2014 and 2016. We included 1997 patients who underwent thyroid surgery for the first time due to suspected PTMC and were confirmed as PTMC by postoperative pathology. The consistency of modified preoperative risk stratification and the pathologic condition were evaluated using a consistency ratio and the Kappa coefficient. Stratified analysis was also performed to test consistency in different age groups.

Results: Based on the decision-making framework, 558 (27.9%) patients could receive AS while 810 (40.6%) patients did not require immediate surgery according to the actual postoperative pathology. The sensitivity, false-positive rate, specificity, false-negative rate, and consistency rate were 82.39%, 56.91%, 43.09%, 17.61%, and 66.45%, respectively. The Kappa value was 0.268. Stratified analysis showed that the sensitivity was 87.7% among patients aged 18 to 59 years. In the group aged ≥60 years, the specificity was up to 87.5%, but the sensitivity was low.

Conclusion: The results of the modified risk-stratified clinical decision-making framework did not have a high consistency with the postoperative results. However, the framework showed a good effect in selecting patients for immediate surgery in the younger group and patients for AS in the older group.