Diabetes duration and glycaemic control as predictors of cardiovascular disease and mortality

Aims: To assess the associations of diabetes duration and glycaemic control (defined by plasma glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] level) with the risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality and to determine whether the addition of either or both to the established CVD risk factors can improve predictions.

Materials and methods: A total of 435 679 participants from the UK Biobank without CVD at baseline were included. Cox models adjusting for classic risk factors (sociodemographic and anthropometric characteristics, lipid profiles and medication use) were used, and predictive utility was determined by the C-index and net reclassification improvement (NRI).

Results: Compared with participants without diabetes, participants with longer diabetes durations and poorer glycaemic control had a higher risk of fatal/nonfatal CVD. Among participants with diabetes, the fully-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for diabetes durations of 5 to <10 years, 10 to <15 years and ≥15 years were 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99, 1.34), 1.50 (95% CI 1.26, 1.79) and 2.22 (95% CI 1.90, 2.58; P-trend <0.01), respectively, compared with participants with diabetes durations <5 years. In addition, those with the longest disease duration (≥15 years) and poorer glycaemic control (HbA1c ≥64 mmol/mol [8%]) had the highest risk of fatal/nonfatal CVD (HR 3.12, 95% CI 2.52, 3.86). Among participants with diabetes, the addition of both diabetes duration and glycaemic control levels significantly improved both the C-index (change in C-index +0.0254; 95% CI 0.0111, 0.0398) and the overall NRI for fatal/nonfatal CVD (0.0992; 95% CI 0.0085, 0.1755) beyond the use of the classic risk factors.

Conclusions: Both longer diabetes duration and poorer glycaemic control were associated with elevated risks of CVD and mortality. Clinicians should consider not only glycaemic control but also diabetes duration in CVD risk assessments for participants with diabetes.