Development and evaluation of a ceMDCT-based preoperative risk stratification model to predict disease-free survival after radical surgery in patients with gastric cancer

Purpose: To develop and evaluate a preoperative risk stratification model for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) based on contrast-enhanced multidetector computed tomography (ceMDCT) images in patients with gastric cancer (GC) undergoing radical surgery.

Methods: We retrospectively enrolled patients with GC who underwent ceMDCT followed by radical surgery. A preoperative risk stratification model was constructed (including risk factor selection, risk status scoring, and risk level assignment) using Cox proportional hazard regression and log-rank analyses in the training cohort; the model was tested in the validation cohort. A nomogram was used to compare the preoperative risk stratification model with a postoperative DFS prediction model.

Results: A total of 462 patients (training/validation: 271/191) were included. The ceMDCT features of T category (score of 0 or 2), N category (0, 1, 2, or 3), extramural vessel invasion (0 or 2), and tumor location (0 or 1) were selected to construct the preoperative risk stratification model, with 4 risk levels defined based on risk score. There were significant differences in DFS among the risk levels in both cohorts (p < 0.001). The predictive value of the preoperative model was similar to that of the postoperative model, with concordance indices of 0.791 (95% CI, 0.743-0.837) and 0.739 (95% CI, 0.666-0.812), respectively, in the training cohort and 0.762 (95% CI, 0.696-0.828) and 0.738 (95% CI, 0.684-0.792), respectively, in the validation cohort.

Conclusion: A preoperative risk stratification model based on ceMDCT images could be used to predict DFS and thus classify GC cases into various risk levels.