Development, Validation and Field Evaluation of the Singapore Longitudinal Ageing Study (SLAS) Risk Index for Prediction of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Dementia

Background: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a critical pre-dementia target for preventive interventions. There are few brief screening tools based on self-reported personal lifestyle and health-related information for predicting MCI that have been validated for their generalizability and utility in primary care and community settings.

Objective: To develop and validate a MCI risk prediction index, and evaluate its field application in a pilot community intervention trial project.

Design: Two independent population-based cohorts in the Singapore Longitudinal Ageing Study (SLAS). We used SLAS1 as a development cohort to construct the risk assessment instrument, and SLA2 as a validation cohort to verify its generalizability.

Setting: community-based screening and lifestyle intervention Participants: (1) SLAS1 cognitively normal (CN) aged ≥55 years with average 3 years (N=1601); (2) SLAS2 cohort (N=3051) with average 4 years of follow up. (3) 437 participants in a pilot community intervention project.

Measurements: The risk index indicators included age, female sex, years of schooling, hearing loss, depression, life satisfaction, number of cardio-metabolic risk factors (wide waist circumference, pre-diabetes or diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia). Weighted summed scores predicted probabilities of MCI or dementia. A self-administered questionnaire field version of the risk index was deployed in the pilot community project and evaluated using pre-intervention baseline cognitive function of participants.

Results: Risk scores were associated with increasing probabilities of progression to MCI-or-dementia in the development cohort (AUC=0.73) and with increased prevalence and incidence of MCI-or-dementia in the validation cohort (AUC=0.74). The field questionnaire risk index identified high risk individuals with strong correlation with RBANS cognitive scores in the community program (p<0.001).

Conclusions: The SLAS risk index is accurate and replicable in predicting MCI, and is applicable in community interventions for dementia prevention.