Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma at CT: A Combined Nomogram Model to Preoperatively Predict Cancer Stage and Survival Outcome

Objectives: To construct a nomogram model that combines clinical characteristics and radiomics signatures to preoperatively discriminate pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in stage I-II and III-IV and predict overall survival.

Methods: A total of 135 patients with histopathologically confirmed PDAC who underwent contrast-enhanced CT were included. A total of 384 radiomics features were extracted from arterial phase (AP) or portal venous phase (PVP) images. Four steps were used for feature selection, and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to build radiomics signatures and combined nomogram model. Performance of the proposed model was assessed by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Kaplan-Meier analysis was applied to analyze overall survival in the stage I-II and III-IV PDAC groups.

Results: The AP+PVP radiomics signature showed the best performance among the three radiomics signatures [training cohort: area under the curve (AUC) = 0.919; validation cohort: AUC = 0.831]. The combined nomogram model integrating AP+PVP radiomics signature with clinical characteristics (tumor location, carcinoembryonic antigen level, and tumor maximum diameter) demonstrated the best discrimination performance (training cohort: AUC = 0.940; validation cohort: AUC = 0.912). Calibration curves and DCA verified the clinical usefulness of the combined nomogram model. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that overall survival of patients in the predicted stage I-II PDAC group was longer than patients in stage III-IV PDAC group (p<0.0001).

Conclusions: We propose a combined model with excellent performance for the preoperative, individualized, noninvasive discrimination of stage I-II and III-IV PDAC and prediction of overall survival.