Momentum of neutrophil recovery using an exponential growth model predicts the prognosis of single cord blood transplantation

Introduction: After the first appearance of peripheral blood neutrophils, recipients from adult donor sources have a rapid increase in neutrophil recovery, whereas cord blood transplantation (CBT) recipients have a slow increase. However, the momentum of neutrophil recovery after CBT varies widely among individuals, but optimal methods to evaluate the momentum of neutrophil recovery and their clinical impacts are yet to be clarified.

Methods: We retrospectively examined the prognostic effect of the momentum of neutrophil recovery in the last 7 days until neutrophil engraftment, which was calculated by an exponential growth model, after single CBT following myeloablative conditioning for 207 adults.

Results: Among patients who achieved each hematopoietic lineage recovery by day 100, the momentum of neutrophil recovery, which was represented as a growth constant, was associated with the day of neutrophil engraftment (P < .0001), red blood cell engraftment (P < .0001), and platelet engraftment (P < .0001) using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient test. More importantly, overall survival was superior with a higher growth constant compared with a lower growth constant (P < .001). In the multivariate analysis, a higher growth constant showed a lower overall mortality compared with a lower growth constant (hazard ratio: 0.48, P = .014).

Conclusion: Our data demonstrated that the momentum of neutrophil recovery during the last 7 days before neutrophil engraftment, which was measured using an exponential growth model, was associated not only with hematopoietic recovery but also with a better prognosis after single CBT.