Quantifying the Impact of Lifting Community Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for COVID-19 During Vaccination Rollout in the United States

Laura Matrajt; Holly Janes; Joshua T Schiffer; Dobromir Dimitrov

doi:10.1093/ofid/ofab341

Quantifying the Impact of Lifting Community Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for COVID-19 During Vaccination Rollout in the United States

Open Forum Infect Dis. 2021 Jun 30;8(7):ofab341. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofab341. eCollection 2021 Jul.

Authors

Laura Matrajt¹, Holly Janes¹, Joshua T Schiffer^{1

2

3}, Dobromir Dimitrov^{1

4}

Affiliations

¹ Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.
² Clinical Research Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.
³ Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
⁴ Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.

Abstract

Using a mathematical model, we estimated the potential impact on mortality and total infections of completely lifting community nonpharmaceutical interventions when only a small proportion of the population has been fully vaccinated in 2 states in the United States. Lifting all community nonpharmaceutical interventions immediately is predicted to result in twice as many deaths over the next 6 months as a more moderate reopening allowing 70% of prepandemic contacts.

Keywords: COVID-19; COVID-19 vaccines; SARS-CoV-2; mathematical model; variants.

Abstract

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