Radiomics from Primary Tumor on Dual-Energy CT Derived Iodine Maps can Predict Cervical Lymph Node Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Cancer

Rationale and objectives: To develop and validate 2 iodine maps based radiomics nomograms for preoperatively predicting cervical lymph node metastasis (LNM) and central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC).

Materials and methods: A total of 346 patients with PTC were enrolled and allocated to training (242) and validation (104) sets. Radiomics features were extracted from arterial and venous phase iodine maps, respectively. Aggregated machine-learning strategy was applied for features selection and construction of 2 radiomics scores (LN rad-score; CLN rad-score). Logistic regression model was employed to establish two radiomics nomograms (nomogram 1: predicting LNM; nomogram 2: predicting CLNM) after incorporating LN or CLN rad-score with clinical predictors. Nomograms performance was determined by discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness.

Results: Nomogram 1 incorporated LN rad-score, age (categorized by 55) and CT reported LN status; Nomogram 2 incorporated CLN rad-score, capsule contact >25% and CT reported CLN status. 2 nomograms both showed good discrimination and calibration in the training (AUC = 0.847; AUC = 0.837) and validation cohorts (AUC = 0.807; AUC = 0.795). Significant improved AUC, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discriminatory improvement (IDI) confirmed additional great predictive value of 2 rad-scores, compared with clinical models without radiomics. Decision curve analysis indicated clinical utility of nomograms. 2 nomograms both demonstrated favorable predictive efficacy in CT reported LN or CLN negative subgroup (AUC = 0.766; AUC = 0.744).

Conclusion: The presented 2 radiomics nomograms are useful tools for preoperative prediction of LNM and CLNM in PTC.