The coronal plane maximum diameter of deep intracerebral hemorrhage predicts functional outcome more accurately than hematoma volume

Background: Among prognostic imaging variables, the hematoma volume on admission computed tomography (CT) has long been considered the strongest predictor of outcome and mortality in intracerebral hemorrhage.

Aims: To examine whether different features of hematoma shape are associated with functional outcome in deep intracerebral hemorrhage.

Methods: We analyzed 790 patients from the ATACH-2 trial, and 14 shape features were quantified. We calculated Spearman's Rho to assess the correlation between shape features and three-month modified Rankin scale (mRS) score, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to quantify the association between shape features and poor outcome defined as mRS>2 as well as mRS > 3.

Results: Among 14 shape features, the maximum intracerebral hemorrhage diameter in the coronal plane was the strongest predictor of functional outcome, with a maximum coronal diameter >∼3.5 cm indicating higher three-month mRS scores. The maximum coronal diameter versus hematoma volume yielded a Rho of 0.40 versus 0.35 (p = 0.006), an AUC_[mRS>2] of 0.71 versus 0.68 (p = 0.004), and an AUC_[mRS>3] of 0.71 versus 0.69 (p = 0.029). In multiple regression analysis adjusted for known outcome predictors, the maximum coronal diameter was independently associated with three-month mRS (p < 0.001).

Conclusions: A coronal-plane maximum diameter measurement offers greater prognostic value in deep intracerebral hemorrhage than hematoma volume. This simple shape metric may expedite assessment of admission head CTs, offer a potential biomarker for hematoma size eligibility criteria in clinical trials, and may substitute volume in prognostic intracerebral hemorrhage scoring systems.