It remains challenging to understand why some hosts suffer severe illnesses, while others are unscathed by the same infection. We fitted a mathematical model to longitudinal measurements of parasite and red blood cell density in murine hosts from diverse genetic backgrounds to identify aspects of within-host interactions that explain variation in host resilience and survival during acute malaria infection. Among eight mouse strains that collectively span 90% of the common genetic diversity of laboratory mice, we found that high host mortality was associated with either weak parasite clearance, or a strong, yet imprecise response that inadvertently removes uninfected cells in excess. Subsequent cross-sectional cytokine assays revealed that the two distinct functional mechanisms of poor survival were underpinned by low expression of either pro- or anti-inflammatory cytokines, respectively. By combining mathematical modelling and molecular immunology assays, our study uncovered proximate mechanisms of diverse infection outcomes across multiple host strains and biological scales.
Keywords: Malaria; Plasmodium chabaudi; bayesian hierarchical model; computational biology; infectious disease; innate immunity; microbiology; mouse; systems biology; within-host model.
© 2021, Kamiya et al.