Population-based incidence and time to classification of systemic lupus erythematosus by three different classification criteria: a Lupus Midwest Network (LUMEN) study

Objective: To estimate the incidence and time-to-classification of SLE by the 1997 ACR (ACR97) criteria, the SLICC criteria, and the European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology/ACR (EULAR/ACR) criteria.

Methods: We identified all incident SLE cases from 2000-2018 in the well-defined Olmsted County population. Clinical data included in the ACR97, SLICC and EULAR/ACR criteria were manually abstracted from medical records. All incident cases met at least one of the three classification criteria. Time-to-classification was estimated from the first documented lupus-attributable disease manifestation to the time of criteria fulfilment by each of the three definitions. Annual incidence rates were age or age/sex adjusted to the 2000 US population.

Results: Of 139 incident cases there were 126 cases by the EULAR/ACR criteria, corresponding to an age/sex-adjusted incidence of 4.5 per 100 000 population (95% CI: 3.7, 5.2). The age/sex-incidence was higher than that of the SLICC criteria (113 cases; 4.0 per 100 000 [95% CI: 3.3, 4.7], P = 0.020) and the ACR97 (92 cases; 3.3 per 100 000 [95% CI: 2.6, 3.9], P < 0.001). The median time from first disease manifestation to criteria fulfilment was shorter for the EULAR/ACR criteria (29.4 months) than the ACR97 criteria (47.0 months, P < 0.001) and similar to the SLICC criteria (30.6 months, P = 0.83).

Conclusion: The incidence of SLE was higher by the EULAR/ACR criteria compared with the ACR97 and the SLICC criteria, and the EULAR/ACR criteria classified patients earlier that the ACR97 criteria but similar to the SLICC criteria.