Backgrounds: Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is standard care as a staging procedure in patients with invasive breast cancer. The axillary recurrence rate, even after positive SLNB, is low. This raises serious doubts regarding the clinical value of SLNB in early breast cancer. The purpose of this study is to select patients with low suspected axillary burden in whom SLNB might be omitted.
Patients and methods: We retrospectively analyzed 2015 primary breast cancer patients between 2007 and 2015, with 982 patients allocated to the training and 961 to the validation cohort. Variables associated with nodal disease were analyzed and used to build a nomogram for predicting nodal disease.
Results: A total of 32.8% of patients had macrometastatic disease. A predictive model was constructed based on age, cN0, morphology, grade, multifocality, and tumor size with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83. Considering a false-negative rate of 5%, 32.8% of patients could be spared axillary surgery. In a subanalysis of patients with relatively favorable characteristics, 26.8% had less than 5% chance of macrometastases.
Conclusions: We present a model with excellent predictive value that can select one-third of patients in whom SLNB is deemed not necessary because of less than 5% chance of nodal involvement. Whether missing 1 in 20 patients with macrometastatic disease is worthwhile balanced against preventing side-effects of the SLN procedure remains to be established. A number of ongoing large prospective trials evaluating the outcome of omitting SLNB are awaited. Meanwhile, this nomogram may be used for individual decision-making.
© 2021. Society of Surgical Oncology.