Research on the cutoff tumor size of omitting radiotherapy for BCSS after breast conserving surgery in women aged 65 years or oder with low-risk invasive breast carcinoma: Results based on the SEER database

Background: Radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) is not always necessary in older women staged T1N0M0 with low-risk invasive breast cancer, but few studies have concluded the detailed tumor size as a reference for avoiding radiotherapy. The study was conducted to explore and identify the optimal cutoff tumor size.

Methods: The study population was from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database in 2010-2016. Propensity score matching was used to balance the confounders between groups. Predictors associated with survival were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier, X-tile, Cox proportional hazards model and competing risk model.

Results: A total of 52049 women and 3846 deaths were included in the cohort with a median follow-up of 34 months. Based on the cutoff value determined by X-tile analysis, the study population were divided into small tumor group (≤14 mm in diameter) and large tumor group (>14 mm in diameter). Small tumors and radiotherapy were correlated with better breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS). In subgroup analysis, the absolute benefit of BCSS in 6 years attributed to radiotherapy was only 0.90% (RT vs. non- RT:98.77% vs. 97.87%) for patients with small tumors but up to 3.33% (RT vs. non- RT:97.10% vs. 93.77%) for those with large tumors.

Conclusion: Small tumors and adjuvant radiotherapy were associated with improved long-term prognosis, and 14 mm in diameter was the cutoff tumor size of omitting radiotherapy for patients aged 65 or older with T1N0M0 stage, ER+ and HER2-breast carcinoma after BCS.