Purpose: Accurate monitoring of therapeutic response remains an important unmet need for patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC). Analysis of tumor genomics obtained via circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) can provide a comprehensive overview of tumor evolution. Here, we evaluated ctDNA change as an early prognostic biomarker of subsequent radiologic progression and survival in MBC.
Patients and methods: Paired blood samples from patients with MBC were analyzed for levels of ctDNA, carcinoembryonic antigen, and cancer antigen 15-3 at baseline and during treatment. A Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments-certified sequencing panel of 73 genes was used to quantify tumor-specific point mutations in ctDNA. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the association between ctDNA rise from baseline to during-treatment (genomic progression) and subsequent radiologic progression and progression-free survival (PFS).
Results: Somatic mutations were detected in 76 baseline samples (90.5%) and 71 during-treatment samples (84.5%). Patients with genomic progression were more than twice as likely to have subsequent radiologic progression (odds ratio, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.74 to 2.41; P < .0001), with a mean lead time of 5.8 weeks. Genomic assessment provided a high positive predictive value of 81.8% and a negative predictive value of 89.7%. The subset of patients with genomic progression also had shorter PFS (median, 4.2 v 8.3 months; hazard ratio, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.75 to 5.04; log-rank P < .0001) compared with those without genomic progression.
Conclusion: Genomic progression, as assessed by early rise in ctDNA, is an independent biomarker of disease progression before overt radiologic or clinical progression becomes evident in patients with MBC.