Monitoring Circulating Immune Checkpoint Proteins as Predictors of Non-AIDS Morbid Events in People With HIV Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy

Background: Although cell surface immune checkpoint proteins (ICPs) such as PD-1 expressed on T cells are associated with T-cell exhaustion, HIV disease progression, and AIDS events, they have shown limited utility in predicting non-AIDS morbidity. Given that ICPs also exist in soluble forms and are elevated in ART-treated HIV infection, we tested the hypothesis that soluble ICPs may be predictive of non-AIDS events in adults initiating ART.

Methods: Utilizing a nested case-control study from the AIDS Clinical Trials Group ALLRT cohort, we measured plasma levels of 15 soluble inhibitory and activating ICPs by Luminex. Participants (134 cases, 292 matched controls) were evaluated pre-ART, a year post-ART, and immediately preceding a non-AIDS event, which included myocardial infarction (MI)/stroke, malignancy, serious bacterial infection, and nonaccidental death.

Results: Conditional logistic regression analysis determined that higher levels of soluble CD27 were associated with increased risk of non-AIDS events at all time points. Higher levels of CD40 at baseline and pre-event and CD80 at pre-event were associated with increased risk of non-AIDS events. Examining specific non-AIDS events, multiple ICPs were associated with malignancy at baseline and pre-event, whereas only higher CD27 levels were associated with increased risk of MI/stroke at year 1 and pre-event.

Conclusions: While select soluble ICPs were associated with non-AIDS events, CD27 emerged as a consistent marker irrespective of ART. Our data may offer guidance on new targets for early clinical monitoring in people with HIV who remain at greater risk of specific non-AIDS events.