Predicted Cognitive Conversion in Guiding Early Decision-Tailoring on Patients With Cognitive Impairment

Background: Cognitive decline is the most dominant and patient-oriented symptom during the development of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). This study was designed to test the feasibility of hybrid convolutional neural networks and long-short-term memory (CNN-LSTM) modeling driven early decision-tailoring with the predicted long-term cognitive conversion in AD and MCI.

Methods: Characteristics of patients with AD or MCI covering demographic features, clinical features, and time-dependent neuropsychological-related features were fused into the hybrid CNN-LSTM modeling to predict cognitive conversion based on a 4-point change in the AD assessment scale-cognition score. Treatment reassignment rates were estimated based on the actual and predicted cognitive conversion at 3 and 6 months according to the prespecified principle; that is if the ADAS-cog score of the patient declines less than 4 points or increases at either follow-up time point, the medical treatment recommended upon their diagnosis would be considered insufficient. Therefore, it is recommended to upgrade the medical treatment upon diagnosis. Actual and predicted treatment reassignment rates were compared in the general population and subpopulations categorized by age, gender, symptom severity, and the intervention subtypes.

Results: A total of 224 patients were included in the analysis. The hybrid CNN-LSTM model achieved the mean AUC of 0.735 (95% CI: 0.701-0.769) at 3 months and 0.853 (95% CI: 0.814-0.892) at 6 months in predicting cognitive conversion status. The AUC at 6 months was significantly impacted when data collected at 3 months were withdrawn. The predicted cognitive conversion suggested a revision of medical treatment in 46.43% (104/224) of patients at 3 months and 54.02% (121/224) at 6 months as compared with 62.05% (139/224) at 3 months (p = 0.001) and 62.50% (140/224) at 6 months (p = 0.069) according to their actual cognitive conversion. No significant differences were detected between treatment reassignment rates estimated based on actual and predicted cognitive conversion in all directions at 6 months.

Conclusion: Using the synergistic advances of deep learning modeling and featured longitudinal information, our hypothesis was preliminarily verified with the comparable predictive performance in cognitive conversion. Results provided the possibility of reassigned recommended treatment for those who may suffer from cognitive decline in the future. Considering the limited diversity of treatment strategies applied in this study, the real-world medical situation should be further simulated.