Prognostic factors for post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression in women after early pregnancy loss: a multi-centre prospective cohort study

Objectives: To investigate prognostic factors for anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress (PTS) symptoms 1 month after early pregnancy loss (EPL).

Design: A prospective cohort study. Consecutive women were recruited, and demographic and clinical data were collected. Surveys containing the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and Post-traumatic Stress Diagnostic Scale (PDS) were emailed 1 month after a loss. Univariable logistic regression was performed to link factors with caseness of anxiety, depression or PTS according to screening measures.

Setting: Early pregnancy units of three central London hospitals.

Participants: 737/1116 eligible women with an EPL were recruited. 492 responded to HADS and 487 to PDS.

Primary and secondary outcome measures: Primary outcome is the area under the curve (AUC) to predict any psychological morbidity (defined as moderate/severe anxiety or depression, or meeting screening criteria for PTS) for each variable. Further outcomes are explained variation (R²) and p value for any morbidity, and AUC, explained variation, and p value for each morbidity separately.

Results: Women who had a past diagnosis of a psychiatric condition were more likely to meet criteria for anxiety, depression or PTS (75% for current diagnosis vs 55% for past vs 30% for no diagnosis; AUC 0.61; R² 8.4%; p<0.0001), as were those with previous pregnancy loss (48% vs 30%; AUC 0.59; R² 4.3%; p<0.0001). Most of the assessed factors did not demonstrate potential utility in predicting psychological distress, including gestational age, overnight admission, time taken for diagnosis, pre-existing children and the diagnosis itself (miscarriage vs ectopic vs other) (AUCs≤0.54; R²≤0.9%).

Conclusions: Women with a history of mental health problems, or those with previous losses, may be at higher risk of psychological illness 1 month after pregnancy loss. However, prognostic ability was poor overall. All women should be considered at risk.