A New Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Intracranial Hemorrhage in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients After Intravenous Thrombolysis

Background: We aimed to develop and validate a new nomogram for predicting the risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) after intravenous thrombolysis (IVT).

Methods: A retrospective study enrolled 553 patients with AIS treated with IVT. The patients were randomly divided into two cohorts: the training set (70%, n = 387) and the testing set (30%, n = 166). The factors in the predictive nomogram were filtered using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The performance of the nomogram was assessed based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: After multivariable logistic regression analysis, certain factors, such as smoking, National Institutes of Health of Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, blood urea nitrogen-to-creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), were found to be independent predictors of ICH and were used to construct a nomogram. The AUC-ROC values of the nomogram were 0.887 (95% CI: 0.842-0.933) and 0.776 (95% CI: 0.681-0.872) in the training and testing sets, respectively. The AUC-ROC of the nomogram was higher than that of the Multicenter Stroke Survey (MSS), Glucose, Race, Age, Sex, Systolic blood Pressure, and Severity of stroke (GRASPS), and stroke prognostication using age and NIH Stroke Scale-100 positive index (SPAN-100) scores for predicting ICH in both the training and testing sets (p < 0.05). The calibration plot demonstrated good agreement in both the training and testing sets. DCA indicated that the nomogram was clinically useful.

Conclusions: The new nomogram, which included smoking, NIHSS, BUN/Cr, and NLR as variables, had the potential for predicting the risk of ICH in patients with AIS after IVT.