The future of medicines is likely determined by an array of scientific, socioeconomic, policy, medical need, and geopolitical factors, with many uncertainties ahead. Here, we report from a scenario project, analyzing various trends, crucial and complex developments in the medicines' space. From a range of 'critical uncertainties' we derived two scenario drivers: global convergence, ranging from very high (trust and solidarity), to very low (fragmented ecosystems); and disease orientation, ranging from public health first to interceptive medicine. This resulted in four contrasting portraits of the future of medicines and social policy: deprioritizing the high-end; sustainable flow; transformative healing; and global divide. All those involved in drug discovery and development can use these for strengthening preparedness for the crucial challenges ahead.
Keywords: Future medicines; Future trends; Global health; Scenario analysis; Social policy.
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