Clinical cardiovascular phenotypes and the pattern of future events in patients with type 2 diabetes

Importance: Updated guidelines on diabetes recommend targeting sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) at patients at risk of heart failure (HF) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA) at those at greater risk of atherothrombotic events.

Objective: We estimated the risk of different cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and newly established cardiovascular disease.

Design, setting and participants: Patients with T2D and newly established cardiovascular disease from 1998 to 2016 were identified using Danish healthcare registers and divided into one of four phenotype groups: (1) HF, (2) ischemic heart disease (IHD), (3) transient ischemic stroke (TIA)/ischemic stroke, and (4) peripheral artery disease (PAD). The absolute 5-year risk of the first HF- or atherothrombotic event occurring after inclusion was calculated, along with the risk of death.

Main outcomes and measures: The main outcome was the first event of either HF or an atherothrombotic event (IHD, TIA/ischemic stroke or PAD) in patients with T2D and new-onset cardiovascular disease.

Results: Of the 37,850 patients included, 40% were female and the median age was 70 years. Patients with HF were at higher 5-year risk of a subsequent HF event (17.9%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 17.1-18.8%) than an atherothrombotic event (15.8%; 15.0-16.6%). Patients with IHD were at higher risk of a subsequent atherothrombotic event (24.6%; 23.9-25.3%) than developing HF, although the risk of HF was still substantial (10.6%; 10.2-11.1%). Conversely, patients with PAD were at low risk of developing HF (4.4%; 3.8-5.1%) but at high risk of developing an atherothrombotic event (15.9%; 14.9-17.1%). Patients with TIA/ischemic stroke had the lowest risk of HF (3.2%; 2.9-3.6%) and the highest risk of an atherothrombotic event (20.6%; 19.8-21.4).

Conclusions: In T2D, a patient's cardiovascular phenotype can help predict the pattern of future cardiovascular events.