Development of a Score for Predicting Severe Acute Pancreatitis at Admission

Objectives: The identification of patients at risk of developing a severe form of acute pancreatitis is a major issue. The goal of this study was to identify parameters at admission associated with severe pancreatitis to develop a predictive severity score.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective study at Caen University Hospital between January 2014 and December 2017, including 504 patients hospitalized for acute pancreatitis, of whom 74 had a severe form. We developed a predictive score named Admission Severe Acute Pancreatitis (ASAP) score based on parameters associated with a severe form in multivariate analysis. We validated our score in an independent validation cohort of 80 patients.

Results: Hypothermia, low oxygen saturation or albumin levels, and high creatinine levels were significantly associated with severe pancreatitis. The ASAP score showed notable predictive accuracy (area under receiver operating characteristic, 0.82), which was significantly higher than Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, persistent Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome, and Balthazar. Using the -2.1742 threshold, the ASAP score had a sensitivity and specificity of 74% and a negative predictive value of 95%. These predictive performances for ASAP score were confirmed in the validation cohort.

Conclusions: The ASAP score demonstrates remarkable predictive accuracy in distinguishing severe forms of acute pancreatitis.